Crypto Scenario Insights
What happened
The preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding has temporarily lowered oil prices and mitigated immediate inflation-shock risks.
What we think
The most likely outcome is a protracted negotiation that extends past the 60-day window, maintaining a neutral macro backdrop with a 55% probability.
Read the analysis
Will the US-Iran Nuclear Talks Unlock a Fed Pivot? Mapping Bitcoin’s 60-Day Macro Runway
We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.