Crypto Scenario Insights
What happened
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1.0% on Tuesday. With speculative yen short positions at their highest level since November 2017, any hawkish guidance could trigger a rapid short squee…
What we think
The most likely outcome is a 1.0% rate hike accompanied by cautious, data-dependent guidance from the BOJ, carrying a 55% probability of causing minor, temporary risk-off volatility rather than a full-scale carry-trade c…
Read the analysis
Will the BOJ Rate Hike Trigger Another Yen Carry Trade Unwind for Bitcoin?
We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.