Crypto Scenario Insights
What happened
A study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets estimates Americans traded up to $34 billion on offshore platforms like Polymarket over 12 months.
What we think
The most likely outcome (55% probability) is a gradual reduction in offshore prediction market liquidity as the CFTC escalates enforcement, with regulated domestic platforms failing to fully capture the displaced volume…
Read the analysis
Will Regulatory Crackdowns Rechannel $34 Billion in Offshore Prediction Market Liquidity?
We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.