Crypto Scenario Insights

MSTR trades at an 18% discount to Bitcoin holdings — is the proxy premium permanently broken?

What happened

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is trading at an 18% discount to its net asset value (NAV) as Bitcoin's price drops below the company's mid-$70,000s average cost basis.

What we think

The most likely outcome is that MSTR will continue to trade at a structural discount of 10% to 20% to its NAV until spot Bitcoin reclaims and holds the mid-$70,000s level, with a 55% probability of this neutral consolida…

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MSTR trades at an 18% discount to Bitcoin holdings — is the proxy premium permanently broken?

We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.

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