Crypto Scenario Insights
What happened
Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker has signed SB 3019, introducing a 0.2% transaction tax on digital assets with no exemptions for self-custody transfers.
What we think
The most likely outcome is a prolonged legal battle over SB 3019, with industry groups securing a temporary injunction that delays enforcement, resulting in a 60% probability of a neutral, localized impact.
Read the analysis
Illinois Enacts First-of-Its-Kind Crypto Transaction Tax — Will State-Level Policies Fragment US Liquidity?
We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.