Crypto Scenario Insights
What happened
Analysis of Galaxy Research and CryptoQuant data indicates that while Bitcoin's muted October 2025 peak structurally points to a shallower cycle bottom, key bottoming indicators remain untriggered.
What we think
The most likely outcome is a slow, range-bound grind down to the base-case bottom of $40,000 to $46,000 over the next 3 to 4 months (55% probability), aligning with historical cycle bottom timelines.
Read the analysis
Does Bitcoin’s 'Calm Top' Guarantee a Higher Floor, or Will Declining Spot Demand Force a Deeper Washout?
We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.