Does $34 Billion in 'Secret' U.S. Prediction Market Volume Threaten On-Chain Liquidity and Regulatory Safe Harbors?

What happened

A report claims U.S. users secretly drove up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market volume. This highlights massive capital flows bypassing domestic restrictions, potentially exposing decentralized platforms to reg…

What we think

From a market-structure perspective, this $34 billion figure represents a major liquidity concentration that is highly vulnerable to regulatory disruption. If U.S.

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Does $34 Billion in 'Secret' U.S. Prediction Market Volume Threaten On-Chain Liquidity and Regulatory Safe Harbors?

We explain what happened and what could follow. We do not forecast prices.