How our Crypto Price Predictions are calculated
Our predictions are directional signals, not price targets. For each coin and time horizon we publish which way our analysis leans (up, sideways or down) and how confident we are — and then we score that call against what the market actually did. This page documents exactly how, so anyone can reproduce it.
The data
We use only free, public market data: daily closing prices from public exchange APIs, and the coin rankings, prices, volumes and market caps from a public market API. No paid feeds, and — importantly — we do notcopy any other site’s forecasts. The signal is entirely our own, computed from the same public prices everyone can see.
The signal
Each signal is a deterministic technical read (no guesswork): the same inputs always produce the same result. It combines:
- Momentum — where the price sits versus its moving average for that horizon.
- Trend — the price relative to its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, and whether those averages are rising or falling.
- RSI — a standard momentum gauge that tempers an over-stretched move.
- Volatility — recent price swings reduce our confidence (never the direction).
A built-in “quality gate” downgrades a call to neutral when the signals contradict each other (for example, price above its average but the average is falling). The output is always a direction plus a confidence score from 0 to 100 — never a predicted price.
What the horizons mean
- 1 week — short-term momentum; graded against the real move 7 days later.
- 1 month — medium-term trend; graded against the real move 30 days later.
- 1 year — a present-tense long-term trend (uptrend, range or downtrend) based on the 200-day average. It describes the current long-term trend, not a future price, and full accuracy grading for it begins once a year of history accrues.
How we grade ourselves
The moment a signal is published it is frozen. When its horizon elapses we compare it to the real price move using a fixed ±5% rule (up if the price rose more than 5%, down if it fell more than 5%, otherwise sideways) — the same rule we use to grade our written analyses. Verdicts are never edited, and our misses are shown alongside our hits. That published track record is the whole point: most prediction sites never show whether their forecasts were right.
Not financial advice
These signals are technical analysis for information and education only. They are not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Always do your own research. See our full disclaimer.